JRC Study: Tackling the Decline of the EU Workforce – Quality Education, More Women in the Workforce, and Skilled Migration

A study by the European Joint Research Centre (JRC) examines projections for the EU workforce between 2021 and 2070, focusing on three key aspects: women’s participation in the labor market, the alignment of skills with labor market demands, and different migration scenarios.

The gradual decline in birth rates across Europe has led to a shrinking EU labor force. If participation rates by age and gender were to remain constant at the average levels observed between 2011 and 2022, the workforce would decrease by 20.2% by 2070. This translates to roughly 42.8 million fewer people in the labor force.

JRC researchers expand this static scenario by adopting a dynamic, forward-looking perspective that combines labor force participation rates with demographic projections for the 2021–2070 period. The analysis reveals significant potential in mobilizing the workforce across various population subgroups.

Compared to the static scenario, women’s empowerment and increased female participation—gradually approaching male levels—could nearly halve the impact of demographic ageing. As a result, the labor force would shrink by just 11% (23.2 million people) by 2070. Similarly, improvements in education would reduce the workforce decline to 15.6% (33.2 million people).

The findings suggest that if all EU countries managed to raise labor force participation among all socio-demographic groups to the levels currently observed in Sweden, the decline in the workforce due to ageing could be significantly mitigated.

Read the full article on the study here (in English)

Cover image courtesy of JRC